Home workers depending on VOIP over the residential broadband network for work purposes could get a big shock when the quality of their voice calls is compromised because their children, or children in the local area, are socialising on Facebook to alleviate the boredom of being off sick or to pass the time if their schools are closed.

Back in June of this year I voiced my concern over this very same issue.

What this means is that for those people who will assume that they can effectively work from home using VOIP, they will seriously need to re-consider their strategy. The PSTN network will of course remain consistently reliable and available and companies should consider re-routing their incoming calls home rather than relying on mobile or VOIP networks which could be over-loaded. Also if work is not able to be conducted via email communication there will need to be a far heavier reliance on the voice network and surely organisations would prefer to pay PSTN call charges rather than mobile charges?

This week Gartner have issued an article suggesting three possible alternatives to improve internet bandwidth for home working:

1. Using WOC (Wan Optimisation Controller) software to ensure that applications use the least amount of bandwidth possible,

2. Use client applets which work with data centre based WOCs to optimise browser speed.

3. Bypass the last mile altogether and switch to a wireless connection such as 3G, WiMax or satellite (which may fix the connectivity problem but not necessarily the data ‘congestion’ issue)

The threat is real, the residential broadband network has its limits and when all else fails we will inevitably be relying on our old friend PSTN to help us continue to work and socialise during times of mass absence from schools and work.

“Aon has created a stand alone insurance policy to reimburse companies for wages, fixed costs and extra expenses if they are unable to access their buildings due to government action.”

Hats off to Aon for identifying the gap in the market here as many generic insurance policies/ business interruption policies do not cover specific pandemic viruses, indeed they only usually cover costs caused by physical damage or ‘notifiable diseases’ which H1N1 does not always qualify for.

The new product from Aon is believed to be the first of its kind available to all kinds of industry, though the general target is for Retail, Transport and Manufacturing where employees would be hard pushed to fulfill their roles from home. I’m sure many of the 100 shops in Princes Street, Edinburgh which suffered a power cut during peak business hours this week, would now be very keen to take up such a policy…

Continous working much better than re-couping costs

It’s great that these industries can now be protected for office/ building closure in this way, however for those industries such as service and finance there is always the option for employees to work from home or another remote office or location and I believe that these types of organisations should be focusing their attention far more on continuing to operate effectively as a business, rather than relying on insurance policies to cover any unexpected costs as a result of a building closure. After all, who wants to pay out twice or three times following a disruption? First for an insurance policy, then for the costs which are not covered by the policy, and finally for a more effective strategy which enables employees to continue working through a disruption whereby your costs are limited from the start.

If organisations had a seamless way of working, regardless of whether their premises could be accessed or not, there would be no need for reliance on such insurance policies to cover unexpected costs.

With postal strikes leaving us unsure about when we should expect to recieve our mail, it could cause problems in terms of people receiving letters from their GP surgeries about when and where they need to be vaccinated, leading to appointment chaos and many people missing their slot.

The alternative is to ring around every person to let them know when they need to be vaccinated. This is clearly a very time consuming job and may not always be effective in reaching the intended recipient. If GP surgeries were able to send out a tailored recorded message to individuals, SMS text or email, or indeed a combination of all three, they are far more likely to be able to reach each person and it would be less time consuming for an already over stretched Health Service…

What message this sends me is that we cannot underestimate what this virus can do to us, our children and our colleagues. If disruption to our routines and work is worse than we are expecting then we could see a slow down in economic activity over the winter months as key employees, customer service staff, sales staff etc. are confined to their beds or looking after sick relatives for a week or more. I don’t necessarily see that the UK will come to a stand still but I just think that everything we do will take a lot longer, meaning that contract deadlines could be missed, deliveries could be delayed and the entire supply chain system could experience a slow down, causing any number of problems.

This disruption could be minimised by taking the right precautions as I have alluded to in previous blogs, and feedback I am getting from the market is that people are starting to take pandemic planning more seriously which is a good sign. I will keep you posted with any further developments I come across…

This is is of particular concern as I have just read in the Daily Telegraph that more than 80% of young children hospitalised with the virus were also previously healthy…
If the media are reducing their reporting of the number or nature of swine flu cases that are happening in the UK it could be all too easy to presume that the pandemic is not as bad as it was previously thought it could be, and I personally think that this a dangerous point of view to take.

There is a fine line I believe between not panicking and being prepared. Our everyday actions should still include good personal hygiene measures such as using antibacterial gel where provided, watching our children carefully for any increase in temperatures and being watchful of friends, family and colleagues who may be showing symptoms. This virus is still a potential killer and certainly has the power to disable a large proportion of the UK workforce.

Clinical Attack Rate: Up to 30% of the UK population (source: Uk Planning Assumptions 3/9/09 Cabinet Office)

Predicted absence rate of employees within a single organisation due to sickness and caring responsibilities: 30% (research undertaken by GlaxoSmithkline)

During the peak, the infection rate may be sustained for 2 weeks (source: Uk Planning Assumptions 3/9/09 Cabinet Office)

Number of deaths to date in the UK: 59 (Fergus on Flu BBC Online 21/8/09)

Estimated loss of revenue per company: between 2% and 8% (Research undertaken by GlaxoSmithkline and validated by Milliman consultancy)

From my own experience last winter when seasonal flu caused havoc at my husband’s company, I would say that the 30% absence rate is pretty accurate. When one employee came back to work for a meeting, while suffering from the flu, he managed to infect and disrupt around 30% of the company’s workforce over a period of around a month, as some took one week off and others took two weeks at varying times.

The company has learnt its lesson and put firmly in place plans for the swine flu pandemic. As soon as there is a whiff of a rumour that an employee may have swine flu, they are sent home to work remotely and their calls are redirected home to offer customers a seamless service. But employers shouldn’t have to get their fingers burnt in order to properly plan for mass flu infection, it should be their top buisness continuity planning priority, especially as we are now in the ‘calm before the storm’.

Backed up by research from the BCI (Business continuity Institute) confirming that over half of organisations they surveyed had weak or no pandemic contingency plans, the CIPD warns that senior managers will ignore the second wave threat of increased swine flu cases and will be hit by substantial staff absences, a great threat to businesses and the recovery of the recession.

Warning companies to not underestimate the potential threat posed by a second wave of swine flu does not seem to be making any difference. There are many factors that contribute to a sense of apathy, but the key obstacle is overcoming the feeling that it will never be as bad as the media would have us believe. As humans we tend to be naturally optimistic, playing down any negative possibility. Indeed I fell victim of this myself recently in a car park…as I went to the machine to put in my card to pay my money the man before me told me it wasn’t working and that it had swallowed his money. Being in a rush and ever the optimist, I thought that maybe it would work for me. You can guess what happened!

So the lesson to be learnt from the information given to us, is that organisations should be factoring ‘optimism bias’ into their contingency plans and planning for the worst case scenario. This is much less work and effort than some managers tend to think, as you can simply and seamlessly re-route incoming calls to employee homes and allow secure access to corporate networks. After all not all staff absences will be due to illness, so why not make better use of their time away and give them the tools to continue working?

Meninigitis can have the same symptoms as flu, including cold hands and feet along with aching limbs. As cases of the illness rise in the autumn, careful diagnosis of both illnesses needs to be undertaken, particulalry as under five year olds tend to deteriorate quickly with Meningitis.

With this new information being brought to light, I do wonder whether it is right to have all the diagnosis control given to those manning the swine flu phone line. A lot of press has been given to the argument of too much Tamiflu being dished out to those who only have a cold, but what about those people who genuinely have more life threatening illnesses which are going under the radar?

I personally think this is good news and is indicating that even if the media is down playing the fact that the virus is not disappearing, at least the government is again being pro-active in finding ways to minimise the risk of pandemic disruption, in the same way that they were quick off the mark to order enough vaccine for the UK population.

What encourages me also is that included in the research projects is one adressing school closure effectiveness in preventing spread of the virus, enabling local decisions on if and when school closures would be appropriate.

Perhaps I was a little quick in my earlier blog to dismiss the government’s decision making process…or should I heed the cynical voice in my head that suggests that they are looking for justification and evidence to back up their argument that schools should not be closing. What do you think?

Follow my thoughts on Twitter or read the full article on Continuity Central.

However firmly back on terra firma it is clear that swine flu is still prevalent in the news and media, suggesting that this virus is not being killed off by the warmer weather and fuelling suggestions that a re-surgence of cases is likely this autumn. Indeed there are 263 people in hospital with swine flu and 30 people in intensive care, as reported by the BBC last Friday. As children prepare to go back to school during the first week of Spetember, it is from then that experts are saying that the number of cases are likely to increase, based on past pandemics. The test will be whether the promised vaccine will be administered before the virus can undertake too much damage.

The government’s decision not to close schools during September could in fact give the swine flu virus the advantage, despite the fact the scientists have claimed that closing them could cut cases by 45%.

But if that is the decision then we have no choice but to prepare for what may happen. Are organisations resting on their laurels or are they preparing for a worst case scenario? I would personally side with the scientists rather than the politicians in this issue and I have ensured that I can continue to work from home if my children are off sick from school. By choosing not to limit public gatherings ministers think that they are reducing social and economic disruption, but from what I have read and heard, I have a niggling feeling that the exact opposite is likely to occur.

Follow my daily thoughts on twitter as the pandemic moves on.