Backed up by research from the BCI (Business continuity Institute) confirming that over half of organisations they surveyed had weak or no pandemic contingency plans, the CIPD warns that senior managers will ignore the second wave threat of increased swine flu cases and will be hit by substantial staff absences, a great threat to businesses and the recovery of the recession.

Warning companies to not underestimate the potential threat posed by a second wave of swine flu does not seem to be making any difference. There are many factors that contribute to a sense of apathy, but the key obstacle is overcoming the feeling that it will never be as bad as the media would have us believe. As humans we tend to be naturally optimistic, playing down any negative possibility. Indeed I fell victim of this myself recently in a car park…as I went to the machine to put in my card to pay my money the man before me told me it wasn’t working and that it had swallowed his money. Being in a rush and ever the optimist, I thought that maybe it would work for me. You can guess what happened!

So the lesson to be learnt from the information given to us, is that organisations should be factoring ‘optimism bias’ into their contingency plans and planning for the worst case scenario. This is much less work and effort than some managers tend to think, as you can simply and seamlessly re-route incoming calls to employee homes and allow secure access to corporate networks. After all not all staff absences will be due to illness, so why not make better use of their time away and give them the tools to continue working?

I personally think this is good news and is indicating that even if the media is down playing the fact that the virus is not disappearing, at least the government is again being pro-active in finding ways to minimise the risk of pandemic disruption, in the same way that they were quick off the mark to order enough vaccine for the UK population.

What encourages me also is that included in the research projects is one adressing school closure effectiveness in preventing spread of the virus, enabling local decisions on if and when school closures would be appropriate.

Perhaps I was a little quick in my earlier blog to dismiss the government’s decision making process…or should I heed the cynical voice in my head that suggests that they are looking for justification and evidence to back up their argument that schools should not be closing. What do you think?

Follow my thoughts on Twitter or read the full article on Continuity Central.

However firmly back on terra firma it is clear that swine flu is still prevalent in the news and media, suggesting that this virus is not being killed off by the warmer weather and fuelling suggestions that a re-surgence of cases is likely this autumn. Indeed there are 263 people in hospital with swine flu and 30 people in intensive care, as reported by the BBC last Friday. As children prepare to go back to school during the first week of Spetember, it is from then that experts are saying that the number of cases are likely to increase, based on past pandemics. The test will be whether the promised vaccine will be administered before the virus can undertake too much damage.

The government’s decision not to close schools during September could in fact give the swine flu virus the advantage, despite the fact the scientists have claimed that closing them could cut cases by 45%.

But if that is the decision then we have no choice but to prepare for what may happen. Are organisations resting on their laurels or are they preparing for a worst case scenario? I would personally side with the scientists rather than the politicians in this issue and I have ensured that I can continue to work from home if my children are off sick from school. By choosing not to limit public gatherings ministers think that they are reducing social and economic disruption, but from what I have read and heard, I have a niggling feeling that the exact opposite is likely to occur.

Follow my daily thoughts on twitter as the pandemic moves on.