Clinical Attack Rate: Up to 30% of the UK population (source: Uk Planning Assumptions 3/9/09 Cabinet Office)

Predicted absence rate of employees within a single organisation due to sickness and caring responsibilities: 30% (research undertaken by GlaxoSmithkline)

During the peak, the infection rate may be sustained for 2 weeks (source: Uk Planning Assumptions 3/9/09 Cabinet Office)

Number of deaths to date in the UK: 59 (Fergus on Flu BBC Online 21/8/09)

Estimated loss of revenue per company: between 2% and 8% (Research undertaken by GlaxoSmithkline and validated by Milliman consultancy)

From my own experience last winter when seasonal flu caused havoc at my husband’s company, I would say that the 30% absence rate is pretty accurate. When one employee came back to work for a meeting, while suffering from the flu, he managed to infect and disrupt around 30% of the company’s workforce over a period of around a month, as some took one week off and others took two weeks at varying times.

The company has learnt its lesson and put firmly in place plans for the swine flu pandemic. As soon as there is a whiff of a rumour that an employee may have swine flu, they are sent home to work remotely and their calls are redirected home to offer customers a seamless service. But employers shouldn’t have to get their fingers burnt in order to properly plan for mass flu infection, it should be their top buisness continuity planning priority, especially as we are now in the ‘calm before the storm’.

Meninigitis can have the same symptoms as flu, including cold hands and feet along with aching limbs. As cases of the illness rise in the autumn, careful diagnosis of both illnesses needs to be undertaken, particulalry as under five year olds tend to deteriorate quickly with Meningitis.

With this new information being brought to light, I do wonder whether it is right to have all the diagnosis control given to those manning the swine flu phone line. A lot of press has been given to the argument of too much Tamiflu being dished out to those who only have a cold, but what about those people who genuinely have more life threatening illnesses which are going under the radar?

I personally think this is good news and is indicating that even if the media is down playing the fact that the virus is not disappearing, at least the government is again being pro-active in finding ways to minimise the risk of pandemic disruption, in the same way that they were quick off the mark to order enough vaccine for the UK population.

What encourages me also is that included in the research projects is one adressing school closure effectiveness in preventing spread of the virus, enabling local decisions on if and when school closures would be appropriate.

Perhaps I was a little quick in my earlier blog to dismiss the government’s decision making process…or should I heed the cynical voice in my head that suggests that they are looking for justification and evidence to back up their argument that schools should not be closing. What do you think?

Follow my thoughts on Twitter or read the full article on Continuity Central.