Speakers at the Civil Contingencies Conference held last Tuesday (titled, Meeting Tomorrow’s Threats and Challenges Today) put forward their views on the future threats which could affect business continuity in the UK:
1. Flooding/ Pandemic Flu/ High Impact Terrorism
John Tesh, Deputy Director, capabilities, Civil Contingencies Secretariat, opened the proceedings at the Grand Connaught Rooms last Tuesday. Though he referred to the fact that it is a ‘fools game’ to try and predict what major incidents will affect our nation in the future, he highlighted the key risks which still form the majority of national risk planning, namely severe weather (flooding, heavy snowfall, heatwave), pandemic flu and high impact terrorism. The criteria being that these types of disruption can cause the most loss or injury to human life and the potential disruption to essential services and supplies.
2. Solar Flares
A lesser known, but potentially significant risk, there is a prediction that a solar flare will occur in 2012 around the time of the Olympic Games. This risk could have a certain impact on electricity supply but as yet it is unknown whether this is a serious or moderate risk.
3. Asteroids
Again another less likey risk but still to be considered, current thinking is that there may be a risk of asteroids hitting the sea around the UK in or around 2029.
4. Climate Change
Helena Busby from DEFRA spoke on the strategy for tackling climate change which involved both mitigation and adaption. Mitigation being the action taken to reduce what is happening to our climate already, and adaption being the activities which will change/ increase in response to climate chnage. The 3 pronged approach is to:
1. Prepare for the impacts of climate change
2. Protect the economy, people and environment
3. Seize opportunities for the UK, e.g increased tourism activity
5. Volcanic Eruptions
John Tesh mentioned that the possibility of risk associated with Icelandic volcanoes has been studied in the past, but that ‘it didn’t seem worth pursuing the possibility of transport disruptions’. Oh dear!
6. Wildfire
Tim Donovan, Fire Service Consultant at the Met Office, spoke of the increasing threat of wildfires. The devestation and disrpution caused by the Australian wildfires is a lesson to be learnt from if we are to reduce the risks and impact of any such fires occuring throughout the UK. The key strategies are to invest in appropriate equipment and tactics to cope with an increase in fires.
7. Food Security
Rick Mumford, head of prgramme for Food Security at the Food and Environment Research Agency, took us through a very interesting and informative presentation on the risks to food supply and provision. Key points covered how our food supply is vulnerable:
1. As climate continues to change an increase or decrease in temperature will have an effect on the types of pests and diseases which will affect crops.
2. Transport disruptions could have a major effect on our food supply as 93% of imports come by sea through only 6 critical ports into the UK.
3. There is an increasing risk of loss of skills and knowledge as fewer people go into farming as a career.
8. Cyber Attacks
The Office of Cyber Security was founded 9 months ago and Phil Hodgins set the scene in this new relatively new area of risk. Though very low impact in terms of loss of life, cyber attacks and cyber criminality have their part to play in the disruption of events such as the Olympics or as a means for terrorists to communicate with one another. It was surprising to hear that the market for malware is a commercial and competitive industry believed to be worth up to $100m where suppliers even have customer service desks for their clients!
Other interesting presentations inlcuded a look back at the swine flu pandemic and a look forward to the Olympics and subsequent impacts in 2012. The final presentation of the day was given by Dr Nigel Brown on telecoms resilience. What I would have like to have heard would have been the role that telecoms resilience has to play in all of the above risks and events, but overall the day was very informative in its presenatations and information.
