During my research into the swine flu pandemic which we are currently in, I have been bombarded with so many statistics on what might happen, the likelihood of this, that and the other, that I thought it would be useful to pull out the most popular statistics in a bid to make sense of what may actually occur in the coming months. Of course these are all predictions and should not be counted as fact, but at least they have some research behind them. If you disagree or have any more solid statistics which you think should be added, be sure to let me know!
Clinical Attack Rate: Up to 30% of the UK population (source: Uk Planning Assumptions 3/9/09 Cabinet Office)
Predicted absence rate of employees within a single organisation due to sickness and caring responsibilities: 30% (research undertaken by GlaxoSmithkline)
During the peak, the infection rate may be sustained for 2 weeks (source: Uk Planning Assumptions 3/9/09 Cabinet Office)
Number of deaths to date in the UK: 59 (Fergus on Flu BBC Online 21/8/09)
Estimated loss of revenue per company: between 2% and 8% (Research undertaken by GlaxoSmithkline and validated by Milliman consultancy)
From my own experience last winter when seasonal flu caused havoc at my husband’s company, I would say that the 30% absence rate is pretty accurate. When one employee came back to work for a meeting, while suffering from the flu, he managed to infect and disrupt around 30% of the company’s workforce over a period of around a month, as some took one week off and others took two weeks at varying times.
The company has learnt its lesson and put firmly in place plans for the swine flu pandemic. As soon as there is a whiff of a rumour that an employee may have swine flu, they are sent home to work remotely and their calls are redirected home to offer customers a seamless service. But employers shouldn’t have to get their fingers burnt in order to properly plan for mass flu infection, it should be their top buisness continuity planning priority, especially as we are now in the ‘calm before the storm’.
Tags: business continuity, flexible working, government, h1n1, home working, swine flu
